Former Prosecutors Downplay Likelihood of Diddy Getting Max Jail Time

Three prominent legal analysts offered insight on Sean “Diddy” Combs’ attorneys’ sentencing recommendations following the verdict in his federal prosecution.

Diddy faces a maximum possible sentence of 20 years behind bars following his conviction on two counts of transportation to engage in prostitution on Wednesday, July 2. A 12-person jury acquitted Diddy on the three arguably more serious charges — racketeering conspiracy and two counts of sex trafficking. The next step in the trial is for both the defense and prosecution to submit their sentencing recommendations to the court.

Jennifer Biedel, a former Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Southern District of New York who is not connected to Diddy’s case, told Us Weekly that at sentencing, “The judge is required by federal statute to consider several factors.”

“[The factors include] the history and characteristics of Sean Combs, the nature and seriousness of the offense for which he was convicted and the need to promote respect for the law and to prevent Sean Combs and others from committing similar crimes in the future,” explained Biedel, who has prosecuted and defended sex crimes, represented Jeffrey Epstein survivors and advised institutions including Penn State during the Jerry Sandusky investigation.

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“The judge will also look to the federal sentencing guidelines as a factor,” Biedel, who now practices at Dykema, added. “While it is not mandatory that the judge give a defendant a sentence that is within the guidelines, sentences in [the Southern District of New York] typically are near the low end of the guidelines range, barring some evidence of aggravating factors. Here, a rough estimate of that guidelines range is around two to three years, but that could increase to around five to six years if Sean Combs has a serious criminal history.”

Mark Chutkow, a former federal prosecutor who previously led the criminal division of the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Detroit, where he handled trafficking and racketeering cases, also spoke to Us about the verdict.

“The prostitution charges were the least serious of the counts in the indictment,” said Chutkow, who is not affiliated with the Diddy case. “While each has a 10-year statutory maximum, which could be imposed consecutively for a possible 20-year sentence, it is unlikely that the court would impose such a high sentence given the acquittal on the more serious charges. When imposing a sentence, the court will consider the fact that the prostitution charges did not involve a criminal enterprise nor allegations of force, fraud or coercion.”

NBC News legal analyst Misty Marris believes that Diddy’s legal team will likely request that he serve no more time behind bars, taking into account time served since his arrest in New York last September, while the prosecution is expected to seek a sentence much closer to the maximum of 20 years imprisonment.

Before Judge Arun Subramanian makes a final decision, a probation board will review the verdict and make a sentencing recommendation. The board’s suggestions will take into account Diddy’s behavior since his incarceration at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center and the fact that this is a first-time offense for him.

“The judge is really limited in those sentencing guidelines,” Marris told NBC News’ Laura Jarrett. “There’s discretion up to that 10 years [per charge], but they’re going to use those guidelines in order to really pin down what would be appropriate under the circumstances.”

Cassie and Diddy in 2017. Mike Coppola/Getty Images for People.com

Diddy’s lawyer Marc Agnifilo already asked Judge Subramanian to release the hip-hop mogul on a $1 million bond today so that he can return home to Miami. Agnifilo insisted that any member of Diddy’s family was willing to sign the legally binding bond order.

The attorney clarified that Diddy has already lost access to his private plane and would be “nothing short of a fool” if he violated any court orders, reported CNN.

“He treasures, I assure you, the opportunity that he has been given, and he will not run afoul of anything this court imposes on him,” Agnifilo vowed.

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Judge Subramanian is expected to make his decision on Diddy’s potential release following a 1 p.m. ET deadline for his lawyers to formally submit their request.

Since his arrest, Diddy has been held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. His four requests for bail were denied by Judge Subramanian.

Wednesday’s verdict followed two days of jury deliberation. The jury previously indicated on Tuesday, July 1, that they’d reached a verdict on four of the five counts but were deadlocked on the racketeering charge. Judge Subramanian instructed the jury to continue deliberating on Wednesday, and they ultimately reached a verdict.

Diddy entered a not guilty plea to charges of racketeering conspiracy, sex trafficking by force, fraud or coercion and transportation to engage in prostitution following his arrest in New York in September 2024. The subsequent trial was built around testimony from Diddy’s former girlfriend Cassie (real name Casandra Ventura) and an unnamed Jane Doe.

Chance Combs and Janice Combs exit court in July 2025. John Lamparski/Getty Images

After Wednesday’s verdict was announced, Cassie’s attorney Douglas H. Wigdor credited her with having “the courage to file her civil complaint” against Diddy in November 2023. Cassie filed a lawsuit against Diddy accusing him of sexual and physical abuse throughout their relationship, which lasted off and on from 2007 to 2018. The disgraced mogul denied her claims. One day after the suit was filed, Diddy and Cassie settled out of court. In May 2024, CNN published a hotel surveillance video of Diddy kicking and grabbing Cassie in 2016. He later apologized for his actions in a video shared via Instagram.

“Although the jury did not find Combs guilty of sex trafficking Cassie beyond a reasonable doubt, she paved the way for a jury to find him guilty of transportation to engage in prostitution,” Widgor told Us. “By coming forward with her experience, Cassie has left an indelible mark on both the entertainment industry and the fight for justice. We must repeat — with no reservation — that we believe and support our client who showed exemplary courage throughout this trial. She displayed unquestionable strength and brought attention to the realities of powerful men in our orbit and the misconduct that has persisted for decades without repercussion.”

Cassie’s legal team vowed to continue to “fight on behalf of survivors” and insisted that the trial proved “change is long overdue.”

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A courtroom reporter told Us that Diddy was “ecstatic” following Wednesday’s verdict as he thanked members of the jury and raised his hands in prayer. Eyewitnesses revealed to Us that Diddy attempted to greet his family members in the courtroom but was not allowed to do so.

Diddy’s supporters — including his mother, Janice Combs, and his son Justin Combs — were spotted celebrating outside the courtroom as his supporters shouted “Free Puff” following the verdict announcement on Wednesday.

If you or someone you know has been sexually assaulted, contact the National Sexual Assault Hotline at 1-800-656-HOPE (4673). If you or someone you know is experiencing domestic violence, please call the National Domestic Violence Hotline at 1-800-799-7233 for confidential support. If you or someone you know is a human trafficking victim, contact the National Human Trafficking Hotline at 1-888-373-7888.